The 10-year yield anchors global asset pricing. Gold pays no yield, so holding it costs more when yields rise.
Historically, major gold lows often came around yield peaks; the 2-year tracks market expectations for Fed policy.
Macro Analysis
Gold's and Bitcoin's big cycles are closely tied to interest rates, the dollar and liquidity. This page brings together the most-used US macro data, taken from the Fed's FRED database, with each series' latest data date (monthly data lags by about a month).
10-year yield
5%
2026/10/23
2-year yield
4.69%
2026/10/23
10Y−2Y spread
0.32%
2026/10/26
10-year real rate
2.66%
2026/10/23
Broad dollar index
121.32
2026/10/23
Fed funds rate (monthly avg.)
3.75%
2026/09
CPI YoY
4.0%
2026/09
Core CPI YoY
2.8%
2026/09
Unemployment rate
4.2%
2026/09
M2 YoY
5.7%
2026/08
Rates: 10-year, 2-year and fed funds
Comparing three rates
| Interest rate | Latest | Data date | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year yield | 5% | 2026/10/23 | Long-term cost of money, benchmark for asset pricing |
| 2-year yield | 4.69% | 2026/10/23 | Market expectations for Fed policy |
| Fed funds rate (monthly avg.) | 3.75% | 2026/09 | Fed effective policy rate |
Price scale
Range
US Treasury yields and fed funds rate (monthly avg.)
Data sources: FRED (St. Louis Fed) DGS10, DGS2, FEDFUNDS, monthly averages
Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™ (Apache-2.0)
Spreads and real rates
| Indicator | Latest | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y−2Y spread | 0.32% | Turning negative (inversion) has historically often preceded slowdowns |
| 10-year real rate | 2.66% | The higher it is, the higher the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets like gold |
Price scale
Range
10Y−2Y spread × 10-year real rate
Data sources: FRED (St. Louis Fed) T10Y2Y, DFII10, monthly averages
Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™ (Apache-2.0)
US dollar
The broad dollar index is weighted by the US's main trading partners, making it more comprehensive than the six-currency DXY. A stronger dollar usually weighs on gold and risk assets.
Price scale
Range
Broad dollar index (DTWEXBGS, monthly avg.)
Data sources: FRED (St. Louis Fed) DTWEXBGS (from 2006), monthly averages
Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™ (Apache-2.0)
Inflation
Price scale
Range
CPI and core CPI YoY
Data sources: FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics); YoY computed from monthly data
Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™ (Apache-2.0)
Jobs and liquidity
Price scale
Indicator scale
Range
Unemployment rate × M2 YoY
Data sources: FRED UNRATE, M2SL; M2 YoY computed from monthly data
Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™ (Apache-2.0)