Three long-cycle tools show where Bitcoin stands: the quantile regression fan (long-term valuation range), the weekly bull market support band (medium-term trend) and the 200-week MA (long-term bottom reference). All numbers are computed from public data, with data dates.
| Item | Current | Data |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly bull market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA) | above | Weekly close 79,990; 20-week SMA 72,938, 21-week EMA 76,674 |
| 200-week MA | above | 200-week MA 67,354; price is 19.5% above |
| Quantile regression fan position | Low 8% | 1% line 69,906, 10% line 82,774, median 134,743 |
| From all-time high | -35.9% | All-time high 124,777 (2025/10/07, daily average) |
| 1-year change | -30.2% | Compared with the daily average 365 days ago |
Take the log of each day's price since 2010 8, run quantile regression against the log of “days since the genesis block”, and solve for the 1%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95% and 99% quantile lines.
Dashed lines mark the 0.1% and 99.9% extreme wick levels.
The upper and lower quantile lines have different slopes (the upper slope is lower), so the fan is asymmetric: over time, the room in the overvalued zone narrows faster.
Lines extended to 2030 are model extrapolations, not forecasts.
Click the legend below to toggle each quantile line; the crosshair shows that day's price and each quantile value.
Data sources: blockchain.com (history) + Chainlink (from 2026/10/27): 2010/08–2026/10/26 is the blockchain.com major-exchange daily average (fetched once); after that, the last Chainlink BTC/USD round (Ethereum mainnet) before 00:00 UTC each day
Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™ (Apache-2.0)
| Quantile lines | Price (USD) |
|---|---|
| 0.1% extreme lower wick | 67,100 |
| 1% | 69,906 |
| 10% | 82,774 |
| 25% | 96,602 |
| 50% (median) | 134,743 |
| 75% | 166,157 |
| 95% | 286,722 |
| 99% | 333,746 |
| 99.9% extreme upper wick | 379,565 |
| Percentile | a | b |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% | -18.0904 | 6.0098 |
| 1% | -17.892 | 5.9624 |
| 10% | -17.3269 | 5.8335 |
| 25% | -17.1915 | 5.8155 |
| 50% | -16.8936 | 5.7753 |
| 75% | -14.508 | 5.1736 |
| 95% | -13.0398 | 4.8507 |
| 99% | -12.1284 | 4.629 |
| 99.9% | -11.6133 | 4.5086 |
The bull market support band is made up of the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA.
In past bull markets, pullbacks mostly found support at this band; consecutive weekly closes below it with rejection from underneath have often signaled a weakening trend.
The 200-week MA has been a long-term reference near past bear-market bottoms.
| Moving averages | Method | Current | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-week SMA | 20-week closing average | 72,938 | Support band upper / lower |
| 21-week EMA | More weight on recent weeks | 76,674 | Support band upper / lower |
| 200-week MA | About four-year average | 67,354 | Long-term bottom reference |
Use the toolbar to toggle the 20-week SMA / 21-week EMA, log / linear scale and time range.
Data sources: blockchain.com (history) + Chainlink (from 2026/10/27): 2010/08–2026/10/26 is the blockchain.com major-exchange daily average (fetched once); after that, the last Chainlink BTC/USD round (Ethereum mainnet) before 00:00 UTC each day; weekly close uses each Sunday's daily average
Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™ (Apache-2.0)
