Glossary
Terms used in our charts and articles.
Technical indicators & statistics
| Term | Explanation |
|---|---|
| SMA (simple moving average) | The arithmetic mean of the last N closing prices. |
| EMA (exponential moving average) | A moving average that weights recent prices more, reacting faster than the SMA. |
| Bull market support band | The zone between the 20-period SMA and 21-period EMA, used to judge whether the medium-term bull structure is intact. |
| Log scale | Equal vertical distances represent equal percentage moves (e.g. 10→100 is as long as 100→1,000), suited to long-term assets with large gains. |
| Log regression | Fit a trend line to the log of price to estimate long-term “fair value”. |
| Quantile regression | Trend line for the q-th percentile of the data; the 1% line means price has historically been below it only about 1% of the time. |
| Standard deviation (σ) | How far data deviates from the average; under a normal distribution the ±2σ channel covers about 95% of observations. |
Macro
| Term | Explanation |
|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | The rate the US government pays to borrow for 10 years, the benchmark for pricing assets worldwide. |
| Real rate | Nominal rate minus inflation expectations; here we use the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield. |
| Yield curve inversion | Short-term yields above long-term (e.g. 10Y−2Y < 0), historically often ahead of an economic slowdown. |
| Broad dollar index | A trade-weighted dollar exchange-rate index compiled by the Fed, covering more currencies than the DXY. |
| Fed funds rate | The US interbank overnight lending rate, the Fed's main monetary policy tool. |
| CPI / core CPI | Consumer price index; core CPI excludes volatile food and energy. |
| M2 | Broad money supply, including cash, checking and time deposits. |
Crypto
| Term | Explanation |
|---|---|
| Halving | About every 21 blocks (roughly four years), Bitcoin halves the issuance of new coins. |
| Stablecoins (USDT, USDC) | A crypto coin pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, commonly used for deposits, withdrawals and lending. |
| Cold wallet | A wallet whose private keys are kept offline (e.g. a hardware wallet), reducing hacking risk. |